Coastal Properties Under Threat: Sea Level Rise to Cost Australia $855 Billion

Rising sea levels threaten to inundate more than 267,000 coastal properties across Australia, with projected damage costs expected to exceed $850 billion by the end of the century. The alarming findings come as researchers warn that the economic toll of climate change will continue to mount as global temperatures rise.

Australia's Coastal Lifestyle Under Threat

Australia's love of the coast is facing a multi-billion-dollar reckoning, research suggests, as rising seas threaten to turn its prized coastal lifestyle into a question of who will foot the bill: property owners or governments. In the first nationwide assessment of economic losses from sea level rise, researchers have found that all coastal states and the Northern Territory face hefty damage bills this century.

The research, conducted by a team of experts from leading universities, found that Australia could face damage costs of more than $850 billion, with more than $274 billion going to property losses and $580 billion spent on land-use damage. Co-author Tom Kompas said the findings were "alarming", and the economic toll would mount as fossil fuel emissions continued to drive global temperatures higher.

"We keep warming the planet … so you get more sea level rise, you get higher tides, higher king tides, higher maximum tides," Professor Kompas said.

"You get more intense, and maybe even more frequent storms and storm surges, and that causes localised flooding."

Consequences of Sea Level Rise

The research found that Queensland has been identified as having 93,000 properties at risk of damage due to sea level rise, resulting in an expected damage bill of $214 billion for the state. The Gold Coast is Australia's most exposed urban area, with projected economic losses of $84.4 billion.

Western Australia faces the largest total losses, while in New South Wales, communities in the state's north and Central Coast region face higher property losses than in Greater Sydney. Victoria is the only jurisdiction where property damage costs exceed those associated with land use.

"Much of it is badly, badly damaged with sea level rise and storm surge … damaged reserves, parks, beaches," Professor Kompas said.

The economic assessment forms the basis of a report, which highlights how coastal floods previously considered severe will become a regular occurrence in the future. It found that every 10cm of sea level rise will triple the frequency of "once-in-a-century" flood events.

Bracing for the Future

Experts are calling for improved efforts to help coastal regions adapt as climate change not only contributes to rising sea levels but is also expected to increase the frequency and intensity of storms. Report author and Climate Councillor Andrew Watkins said the impacts were already being felt.

"We have seen quite a rapid increase in what we call extreme water levels along the coast, and that gives coastal inundation, coastal flooding and coastal erosion as well," Dr Watkins said.

Associate Professor of Climate Adaptation at Griffith University Johanna Nalau said recovery from recent storm events was still ongoing, and there has been some reporting in the news that some of the housing damage that people experience hasn't been resolved yet.

"There has been a lot of work on beach nourishment and then more acute damage, so we talk about power, power networks, transport, water and sewage; those were resolved within weeks to months," she said.

Warnings of a mounting economic toll have also raised questions around who will foot the damage bills going forward, particularly given insurance generally does not cover "actions of the sea".

Dr Watkins said it was becoming "prohibitively expensive" for some councils to pay for adaptation and recovery.

"A lot of councils are effectively having to dip into their own coffers to support resilience building, but also to recover from damage that's done when we have these storm events and sea level events along our coastlines," he said.

"We do need to look at this as a national problem and develop plans with the communities and with the local, state, and federal level about the best ways to go forward."