New Zealand expats in Australia gear up to vote in 'knife-edge' election

With the upcoming New Zealand election on a "knife edge", expats like Brisbane woman Mary-Leigh Scheerhoorn could help shape the result. A permanent resident of Australia, she is one of about 126,000 New Zealanders living overseas who are registered to vote ahead of the general election on November 7.

Kiwi expats account for more than 3 per cent of registered voters at this election, with nearly two-thirds of them in Australia. Ms Scheerhoorn, a clinical nutritionist who has lived in Australia for 24 years, said she was voting to influence the country she hoped to return to one day.

As a Māori woman, she said she had a strong connection to New Zealand and was "drawn back to be with my people and my culture".

Election a 'dead heat'

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, who leads the National Party, is seeking a second term after defeating the Labour Party's Chris Hipkins in 2023. The incumbent government — a right coalition of the National Party, New Zealand First and ACT Party — is up against a left bloc of the Labour Party, Green Party and Te Pāti Māori (Māori Party).

Tom Jamieson, a senior lecturer in political science at Te Herenga Waka-Victoria University of Wellington, said polling suggested both the major parties, National and Labour, were generally in the high 20s. However, a 1News-Verian poll released on Tuesday had National pushing ahead by five points.

Nonetheless, Mr Jamieson said there was a "dead heat" between the two blocs and the election looked to be on a "knife edge". "A 1 per cent or a 2 per cent swing could decide the election," Dr Jamieson said. "So I think it's probably in all of their interests to court the overseas vote as much as possible."

He said the non-aligned Opportunity Party could be a "kingmaker" if it won more than 5 per cent of the party vote — the threshold required to enter parliament without winning an electorate seat under the country's electoral system.

Expat voting intentions

Ms Scheerhoorn said she was hoping for a new New Zealand government. She said she was dismayed by the government's handling of issues relating to the Treaty of Waitangi/Te Tiriti o Waitangi, the nation's founding agreement with Māori people, and the removal of Māori language from some books that teach young children to read to avoid "confusion".

"This has felt like an open attack on the culture, which I think is very much the fabric of New Zealand," she said.

She said a future move home had made her consider things like the cost of living, housing and health care. "If we want to go back and live in New Zealand … are there jobs available? What's the earning capacity? What's the tax situation look like?" she said.

Ron Deane, who moved to Australia from Rotorua three years ago, was also leaning towards voting for a minor party. The Brisbane-based truck driver came over after struggling to find work in New Zealand and had similar concerns about the treaty, the cost of living and affordable housing.

"Although I live in Australia, New Zealand is still home. I care about its future and believe it's important to have a say in the decisions that affect our people, culture and future generations," he said.

Parties court overseas voters

Kiwi expat Tracey Lee, a strategist and former sociologist, created the non-partisan campaign Every Kiwi Vote Counts in 2020, which aims to boost the number of overseas voters.

"Those [expat] votes and perspectives can change what goes forward," she said from her home in London.

Ms Lee helped organise a virtual town hall in early October so party leaders could speak to expat voters around the world.